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Showing posts with label Joe Biden. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Joe Biden. Show all posts

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Taking on G.O.P., Obama Unveils Debt Relief Plan - NYTimes.com

Taking on G.O.P., Obama Unveils Debt Relief Plan - NYTimes.com

By MARK LANDLER and MICHAEL D. SHEAR
WASHINGTON — President Obama made the case Wednesday for slowing the rapid growth of the national debt while retaining core Democratic values, proposing a mix of long-term spending cuts, tax increases and changes to social welfare programs as his opening position in a fierce partisan budget battle over the nation’s fiscal challenges.

After spending months on the sidelines as Republicans laid out their plans, Mr. Obama jumped in to present an alternative and a philosophical rebuttal to the conservative approach that will reach the House floor on Friday. Republican leaders were working Wednesday to round up votes for that measure and one to finance the government for the rest of the fiscal year.

Mr. Obama said his proposal would cut federal budget deficits by a cumulative $4 trillion over 12 years, compared with a deficit reduction of $4.4 trillion over 10 years in the Republican plan. But the president said he would use starkly different means, rejecting the fundamental changes to Medicare and Medicaid proposed by Republicans and relying in part on tax increases on affluent Americans.

The president framed his proposal as a balanced alternative to the Republican plan, setting the stage for a debate that will consume Washington in coming weeks, as the administration faces off with Congress over raising the national debt ceiling, and into next year, as the president runs for re-election.

Mr. Obama named Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. to lead the negotiations with Congress, which the administration hopes will produce the outlines of a deal by the end of June, though a detailed agreement might have to await the outcome of the 2012 election. Mr. Biden played a similar role in talks that averted a government shutdown at the 11th hour, over issues far less thorny than those on the table now.

In a 44-minute speech to an audience at George Washington University that included Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, the author of the Republican plan, Mr. Obama was often combative and partisan, saying the Republican approach would hurt the elderly by driving up the cost of medical care, deprive millions of health insurance and starve the nation of investments in its future.

“These are the kind of cuts that tells us we can’t afford the America that I believe in,” he said. “I believe it paints a vision of our future that’s deeply pessimistic.”

“There’s nothing serious about a plan that claims to reduce the deficit by spending a trillion dollars on tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires,” the president continued, as Mr. Ryan sat stone faced. “There’s nothing courageous about asking for sacrifice from those who can least afford it and don’t have any clout on Capitol Hill.”

Yet Mr. Obama acknowledged that the rising medical costs and the mounting debt required action. And he warned Democrats that his administration would have to cut cherished programs and strictly limit the growth of Medicare and Medicaid. “If we truly believe in a progressive vision of our society,” he said, “we have the obligation to prove that we can afford our commitments.”

Mr. Obama said he would meet his $4 trillion deficit-reduction target by cutting spending across a range of government programs, from farm subsidies to federal pension insurance.

He called for cutting $400 billion more in military spending — twice what his defense secretary, Robert M. Gates, told Congress was the largest cut he could recommend.

In a sign of the tensions the plan may cause within the administration, officials at the Pentagon said Mr. Gates was not told of Mr. Obama’s proposal until Tuesday. In a statement, a Pentagon spokesman, Geoff Morrell, said that “further significant defense cuts” would reduce the military’s capability. “It is important that any reduction in funding be shaped by strategy and policy choices, and not be a budget math exercise,” Mr. Morrell said.

Republicans criticized the plan, both for the cuts in military spending and for what they said was an overall lack of detail.

“Republicans, led by Chairman Ryan, have set the bar with a jobs budget that puts us on a path to paying down the debt and preserves Medicare and Medicaid for the future,” Speaker John A. Boehner said in a statement. “This afternoon, I didn’t hear a plan to match it from the president.”

Mr. Boehner repeated a threat to refuse to raise the $14.3 trillion ceiling on the national debt, which the government is likely to breach in early July, unless the administration agrees to rein in spending and deficits. The administration has sought to keep the debt ceiling issue separate from the broader budget debate, and Mr. Obama addressed it only indirectly on Wednesday.

“If our creditors start worrying that we may be unable to pay back our debts,” Mr. Obama said, “that could drive up interest rates for everyone.”

Still, in what some analysts said was a gesture to Republicans, Mr. Obama said his plan would contain a trigger to require across-the-board spending cuts if, by 2014, the federal debt was still projected to be rising as a percentage of the total economy.

The trigger would apply not only to spending but also to what the administration calls “tax expenditures” — essentially payments to taxpayers for deductions for charitable donations or home mortgages.

The use of the phrase “tax expenditures” allows the administration to lump tax-related issues into the spending category. Mr. Obama was more direct in his call for allowing the Bush-era tax cuts for higher-income Americans to expire in 2012.

The president agreed to extend the cuts last December, as part of a budget deal with the newly elected Republican majority in the House. Now, with the economy getting back on its feet, Mr. Obama attacked the demand by Republicans to make the lower tax rates permanent as emblematic of their plan to enrich the wealthy on the backs of the elderly and poor.

“They want to give people like me a $200,000 tax cut that’s paid for by asking 30 seniors to each pay $6,000 more in health costs? That’s not right, and it’s not going to happen as long as I am president,” Mr. Obama said, his only line that drew applause.

While Mr. Obama’s plan does not detail specific cuts, analysts said it offered enough detail to set off a substantive debate with Republicans. Some said the proposal for capping the annual cost increase in Medicare and Medicaid to just above the economic growth rate was surprisingly conservative. Others said they were pleased that Mr. Obama had called for overhauling Social Security, even if he was vague and said it was not a leading culprit for the deficit.

“It looks like Ryan smoked him out, so to speak,” said Rudolph G. Penner, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute.

Mr. Penner said Mr. Obama’s plan hewed closely to the recommendations of his commission on deficit reduction. Mr. Obama did not explicitly endorse those recommendations when the commission submitted its report in December — a decision that fueled criticism from Republicans and some Democrats that he was not facing up to the tough choices in the budget debate.

The co-chairmen of that commission — Erskine B. Bowles, who was a chief of a staff to President Bill Clinton, and former Senator Alan K. Simpson — were in the audience Wednesday, along with Mr. Biden. At one point, Mr. Biden appeared to nod off, closing his eyes for 30 seconds.

Jackie Calmes, John Harwood and Thom Shanker contributed reporting.

Friday, January 07, 2011

Why Obama Chose Businessman William Daley as His Chief of Staff

Why Obama Chose Businessman William Daley as His Chief of Staff

President Obama picked former Commerce Secretary William Daley to be his new chief of staff on Thursday, bringing on board a businessman with vast political experience at a time Obama is preparing to launch his re-election bid and improve relations with the corporate community.

Though the president and Daley have known each for years from Chicago politics, Obama's quick rise from the Illinois State Senate to the White House had little to do with Daley or his brother, Chicago Mayor Richard Daley. Daley has never been part of Obama's inner personal circle -- considered a plus because he can bring an outsider's perspective to the White House.

What Obama and Daley -- and former Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel -- have in common are close ties to Obama Senior Adviser David Axelrod, who is expected to depart at the end of the month to return to Chicago and take on duties as the main strategist for the 2012 Obama campaign.

Daley is stylistically different from Emanuel, far more measured than the harder-edged Emanuel, whose early political job was as a fundraiser for Richard Daley's 1989 mayoral campaign. The vacancy Daley is filling was created when Emanuel quit in October to run for Chicago mayor, getting in the race once Mayor Daley decided not to seek another term.

In selecting William Daley, White House officials told Politics Daily, Obama gets a very specific skill set needed as he prepares to launch his re-election bid and deal with a potentially hostile GOP-controlled House and a Senate where Democratic strength has diminished.

Daley, who is expected to join the administration in a few weeks, brings in deep links to the global business world, Cabinet experience, national political knowledge and a comfort factor stemming not only from connections to Axelrod but also to David Plouffe, Obama's 2008 campaign manager who is joining the White House on Monday.

Since May 2004, Daley has been working from Chicago as the Midwest chairman banking giant JP Morgan Chase & Co. and head of its corporate responsibility operation. Daley's last major political assignment was in 2000, when he was brought in to rescue Vice President Al Gore's presidential campaign, setting up camp in Tallahassee, Fla., during the brutal recount battle against George Bush that was eventually decided by the U.S Supreme Court.

He also was an early backer of Vice President Joe Biden's 1988 presidential bid and a veteran of Walter Mondale's presidential contest.

But Daley is as familiar with Chicago's precinct politics as he is with presidential elections. Though Daley, 62, the mayor's youngest brother, in the last 10 years flirted with runs for Illinois governor and senator, he never jumped in himself.

Obama noted how Daley straddled the government and political worlds when he announced his chief of staff pick Thursday afternoon in the White House East Room, flanked by Daley and interim chief of staff Pete Rouse.

Rouse got high grades for his work, but did not want to stay on as chief. Instead, the super low-profile Rouse, who served Obama as his chief of staff when he was an Illinois senator -- and was an architect of his presidential campaign -- will remain as a counselor to the president.

In speaking about Daley, Obama said, "He's led major corporations. He possesses a deep understanding of how jobs are created . . . And, needless to say, Bill also has a smidgen of awareness of how our system of government and politics works. You might say it is a genetic trait," Obama said, a reference to Daley's brother and father, both Chicago mayors.

Obama cited Daley's "tremendous experience, his strong values and forward-looking vision," adding, "I'm convinced that he'll help us in our mission of growing our economy and moving America forward. And I very much look forward to working with Bill in the years to come."

Daley said it was an "extreme honor" to take on the assignment. Alluding to President John F. Kennedy, always a Daley family favorite, he recalled a visit to the White House decades ago with his family.

"Fifty years ago this month, I visited the White House with my parents and my brothers and sisters to visit a young president who went on to show great strength, leadership and vision in the face of enormous challenges in those times. You, Mr. President, are proving your strength, your leadership, your vision during a most difficult time for our nation and for the world. You have also shown through your example that public service is an honorable calling, and I am pleased to answer your call," Daley said.

Daley's appointment drew mixed reviews: Democratic progressives were disappointed and the business community was very upbeat. Daley frayed relations with unions in 1993, when he was President Clinton's "NAFTA czar," successfully winning congressional approval for the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Clinton later tapped Daley as Commerce secretary in 1997 at the start of his second term and earlier had named him to a seat on the board of Fannie Mae, the quasi-governmental mortgage maker, in part to make up for not making him Transportation secretary in his first term.

AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka was wary of Daley. "The president is of course entitled to choose a chief of staff in whom he has complete confidence," Trumka said in a statement. "Yet President Obama and his Administration will ultimately be judged by results -- whether the economy recovers robustly and begins to generate good jobs on the scale needed to improve the lives of working people."

Justin Ruben, executive director of the liberal MoveOn.org, was equally skeptical. "With Wall Street reporting record profits while middle-class Americans continue to struggle in a deep recession, the announcement that William Daley, who has close ties to the Big Banks and Big Business, will now lead the White House staff is troubling and sends the wrong message to the American people," Ruben said in a statement.

Daley's selection drew applause from Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Thomas J. Donohue. "This is a strong appointment," he said in a statement. "Bill Daley is a man of stature and extraordinary experience in government, business, trade negotiations, and global affairs. He's an accomplished manager and strong leader. We look forward to working with him to accelerate our recovery, grow the economy, create jobs, and tackle America's global challenges."

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) was also enthusiastic about the Daley pick. He told reporters on Thursday, "I, frankly, think it's kind of a hopeful sign. He has a business background. You know, we used to -- I used to say the last two years -- I don't know whether it's technically true or not -- but that there was nobody down at the White House who had ever even run a lemonade stand. You know, they were all college professors . . . former elected officials. This is a guy who's actually been out in the private sector, been a part of business. Frankly, my first reaction is: That sounds like a good idea."

Like Emanuel, Daley is a Democratic centrist. In a December Washington Post column taking stock of the big Democratic loss in the November elections, Daley gave liberals some tough love:
"All that is required for the Democratic Party to recover its political footing is to acknowledge that the agenda of the party's most liberal supporters has not won the support of a majority of Americans -- and, based on that recognition, to steer a more moderate course on the key issues of the day, from health care to the economy to the environment to Afghanistan.

"For liberals to accept that inescapable reality is not to concede permanent defeat. Rather, let them take it as a sign that they must continue the hard work of slowly and steadily persuading their fellow citizens to embrace their perspective. In the meantime, liberals -- and, indeed, all of us -- should have the humility to recognize that there is no monopoly on good ideas, as well as the long-term perspective to know that intra-party warfare will only relegate the Democrats to minority status, which would be disastrous for the very constituents they seek to represent," Daley wrote.
Last year, Daley joined the board of a moderate group called the Third Way, whose president, Jonathan Cowan, said in a statement, "His selection sends a clear signal that he intends to govern and campaign from the center over the next two years.

"In selecting Daley, President Obama has hit the trifecta – a top-notch manager, a pro-growth business leader and a moderate Democrat who knows how to work across the aisle."

"Bill Daley is an experienced manager who has run agencies and presidential campaigns," said Cowan. "He has the business credentials to help the White House continue to heal the breach between the administration and the private sector; and he is committed to a big-tent politics for the Democratic Party."

Sunday, December 12, 2010

Biden Takes On More Influential Role for Obama - NYTimes.com

Vice President Joe Biden L'68Image via WikipediaBiden Takes On More Influential Role for Obama - NYTimes.com

WASHINGTON — It was the end of a long and testy gripe session with House Democrats on Wednesday, and Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. had had enough.

For two hours, Mr. Biden had been going back and forth with furious members of his own party over President Obama’s deal with Republicans on tax cuts. In a basement room at the Capitol, Mr. Biden was trying to convince Democrats that the deal was the best one they were going to get.

Then Representative Anthony Weiner of New York got up and asserted that Mr. Obama was acting like a “negotiator in chief” instead of a “leader” who gets things done.

Mr. Biden erupted. “There’s no goddamned way I’m going to stand here and talk about the president like that,” the vice president said, according to two people in the room.

In the annals of bickering among Democrats, the exchange between Mr. Biden and Mr. Weiner was mild. But it highlights the distance that Mr. Biden and Mr. Obama have traveled since they ran against each other in the 2008 Democratic primaries, a campaign season that Mr. Biden kicked off by saying Mr. Obama was “the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy.”

Now, at the halfway point of a first term in which Mr. Obama has mostly relied on the counsel of a tightly closed inner circle, Mr. Biden is taking a more prominent and influential role. With the departure of Rahm Emanuel as chief of staff and Mr. Obama’s need to negotiate with Congressional Republicans if he is to advance his agenda, the president is increasingly using Mr. Biden as a multipurpose emissary while continuing to seek his counsel behind the scenes.

Mr. Biden not only played an important role in negotiating the tax deal with Republicans and trying to sell it to Democrats, but also was one of the people in the West Wing who urged Mr. Obama to try to find a compromise on the issue in the first place, aides said.

The president is at a crucial point, with a restive party that is trying to figure out what its role and relationship with the White House will be leading up to the 2012 elections.

Among Democrats on Capitol Hill, Mr. Biden’s role in the back-channel compromise with Republicans on tax cuts has engendered some resentment, along with questions about whether he will encourage further accommodation with Republicans or serve as a liberal counterweight to those in the White House who are advocating a move to the center.

Republicans are still assessing how powerful a player he will be as the White House adapts to a divided government. But in both parties, he is seen if nothing else as someone well positioned to shuttle between Congress and the West Wing.

“I guarantee you, Joe’s walking back to the White House with a head full of information,” said Senator Christopher J. Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat and close friend of Mr. Biden. The president, Mr. Dodd said, needs Mr. Biden’s wide network because he “just doesn’t have the personal relationships that Joe has.”

Or, as Mr. Weiner put it in an interview, “Biden brings everything that Rahm Emanuel brings, but the major difference is everyone likes Joe Biden.”

While Mr. Biden has credibility with the Democratic left, his long record in the Senate has enough moments in which he proved willing to work with or give ground to Republicans that they view him as less dogmatic than many other administration officials.

Mr. Biden alienated some of the left when he led the Senate Judiciary Committee’s hearings for Clarence Thomas’s nomination to the Supreme Court in 1991. While he voted against confirmation, Mr. Biden made decisions during the hearings, including not allowing testimony about pornography rentals, that many critics believed helped Justice Thomas weather the confirmation process.

Beyond his behind-the-scenes role in negotiating the tax deal with Republicans — a path that Mr. Biden and Mr. Obama decided on in a recent conversation at the White House, aides say — the vice president has also been trying to win Republican votes in the Senate for ratification of the so-called New Start nuclear arms treaty with Russia.

That background for compromise is now being put to use at the White House, from Mr. Biden’s diplomatic mission to try to soothe the angry House Democrats to his secret shuttling between his boss and the Republican Senate leader, Mitch McConnell, to iron out the tax deal.

Mr. Biden took the lead in nudging Iraq’s leaders into forming a new coalition government. He has been given the task of navigating growing tensions in Lebanon. And while Mr. Obama rejected Mr. Biden’s recommendation of a narrowly focused counterterrorism strategy for Afghanistan in favor of a more expansive counterinsurgency approach, the halting pace of progress in Afghanistan has left some administration officials wondering if the president might not eventually come around to Mr. Biden’s way of thinking.

There are still times when Mr. Biden has been left out of Mr. Obama’s decision-making, most notably in March, after his fence-mending trip was ruined by an Israeli announcement of new housing units for Jews in East Jerusalem. Mr. Biden condemned the move as undermining the peace process.

But while Air Force Two was flying back to Washington, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, after a talk with Mr. Obama, called Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and went much further than Mr. Biden had, leaving the appearance that Mr. Obama did not think the vice president had been forceful enough.

Once the Republicans take over the House and increase their numbers in the Senate in January, Mr. Biden’s role will widen, White House officials said, as Mr. Obama tries to capitalize on the relationships his gregarious vice president built over the course of 36 years in the Senate.

“If he’s going to try to get anything done in a partisan divide, and a divided Senate, Biden is a tremendous asset because he knows the players, the institution, and he has credibility,” said John Podesta, the chief executive of the Center for American Progress, who led Mr. Obama’s transition team after the 2008 election.

Mr. Podesta said Mr. Biden could succeed where Mr. Obama’s White House advisers could not because there was a perception that the vice president, while close to the president, was not too close.

“One of the values that Biden brings is that he is sort of an outsider,” Mr. Podesta said, adding that the view of the vice president as a player distinct from the senior West Wing staff is “an asset that the president can utilize.”

When Mr. Obama took the oath of office, Mr. Biden was not part of the president’s famously tight inner circle, which largely consisted of Mr. Emanuel; Robert Gibbs, the press secretary; and Valerie Jarrett and David Axelrod, both senior advisers.

“All relationships build over time,” said Ron Klain, Mr. Biden’s chief of staff. “The fact is, in the campaign, they spent 99 percent of their time apart.”

Mr. Klain added: “Since they came to the White House, they have spent a huge amount of time together — a lot of that under tough circumstances and tense situations. That’s helped strengthen the relationship between the two of them and built a great deal of mutual trust, confidence and shared perspective.”

Beyond the daily briefings and West Wing meetings, Mr. Biden and Mr. Obama bonded over basketball, watching Mr. Obama’s daughter Malia and Mr. Biden’s granddaughter Maisy play together in middle school gymnasiums and recreation centers in the Washington area.

They weathered Mr. Biden’s objections to the Afghanistan troop increase. While the president ended up siding with military commanders over Mr. Biden in ordering 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan, Mr. Biden did not emerge from the debate weakened.

But even as he has been bonding with his boss, Mr. Biden has been maintaining his old ties on Capitol Hill — the ties the White House now hopes to use in the next two years. Mr. Biden still goes to the Senate gym to work out so he can keep in touch with his former colleagues, aides say.

Two weeks ago, Mr. Biden was making phone calls from his ceremonial office in the Senate after working out at the gym when Senator Johnny Isakson, Republican of Georgia, spotted him through the glass door and went in to chat. Mr. Biden used the opportunity to defend of the New Start treaty, enumerating the reasons he believed Republicans should vote for it in the lame-duck session.

He was executing his latest assignment from his boss. On Nov. 18, Mr. Biden convened a meeting to enlist support for the treaty from foreign policy luminaries in the Roosevelt Room of the White House. Mr. Obama stopped by, and James A. Baker III, the former secretary of state, gestured toward him.

“Wait a minute, Mr. President,” Mr. Baker said, according to a White House aide who was in the room. “We need to know who our point of contact is on this. Who do we call?”

Mr. Obama looked at Mr. Baker. And then he pointed to Mr. Biden.

Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Biden Goes to Capitol Hill to Defend Tax-Cut Deal - NYTimes.com

Biden Goes to Capitol Hill to Defend Tax-Cut Deal - NYTimes.com

WASHINGTON — President Obama planned an afternoon news conference and Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. went to Capitol Hill on Tuesday as the White House put on a full-court press to get Congress, and particularly members of his own Democratic Party, to defend the administration’s tentative deal with Republicans to extend the Bush-era tax cuts at all income levels for the next two years.

With many Democrats, especially liberals, angered by his concession to Republicans, Mr. Obama is likely to use his time before the cameras to highlight the concessions he got in tax cuts for lower-income workers, additional aid for the long-term unemployed and investment incentives for all businesses.

Congressional Democratic leaders have so far refused to endorse the agreement. In a statement on Tuesday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi reiterated her position that continuing the lower tax rates for the highest-income Americans would not help the economy and would increase the deficit. And she pointedly declined to support the plan, saying only that she would continue to meet with colleagues and hold discussions with Mr. Obama.

Mr. Biden was to attend lunch with his former Senate Democratic colleagues and try to persuade them to support the deal, which the White House made on Monday.

Even before meeting formally with their caucuses, senior Democratic leaders were signaling their deep displeasure with the White House at the moment, and earlier in the day, leadership aides said it would be largely up to the White House to sell the deal. They also said that it would be mainly up to Republican leaders to deliver the votes needed to approve the package.

Some Republicans are expected to vote against the plan because the entire $900 billion cost would be borrowed and added to the deficit. Party leaders on both sides began canvassing to see where the votes would be.

Resistance is expected to be fiercest in the House, where Ms. Pelosi planned to discuss the proposed agreement with rank-and-file lawmakers later in the day.

“The tax proposal announced by the president clearly presents the differences between Democrats and Republicans,” Ms. Pelosi said in her statement. “Any provision must be judged by two criteria: does it create jobs to grow our economy and does it add to the deficit?

“The Democratic provisions will create jobs and help 155 million workers through tax cuts for the middle class, helping working families who are struggling and growing the economy. The Republican demands would provide tax cuts to the millionaires and billionaires, fail to create jobs and increase the deficit.”

She continued: “To add insult to injury, the Republican estate tax proposal would help only 39,000 of America’s richest families, while adding about $25 billion more to the deficit.Republicans have held the middle class hostage for provisions that benefit only the wealthiest 3 percent, do not create jobs, and add tens of billions of dollars to the deficit.”

House Democrats last week approved President Obama’s preferred tax plan, which would have let the Bush-era rates expire at the end of the month on annual income above $250,000 for couples and $200,000 for individuals.

And many Democrats view the continuation of George W. Bush’s tax policies as a bitter defeat.

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

News Analysis - U.S. and Iraqi Interests May Work Against Pullout - NYTimes.com

News Analysis - U.S. and Iraqi Interests May Work Against Pullout - NYTimes.com

BAGHDAD — In a recent speech President Obama took credit for delivering on his promise to end the official combat mission on schedule, and vowed to meet America’s next deadline of moving all American forces off Iraqi soil by the end of 2011. “As agreed to with the Iraqi government, we will maintain a transitional force until we remove all our troops from Iraq by the end of next year,” the president said.

The reality in Iraq may defy that deadline, because many American and Iraqi officials deem the American presence to be in each nation’s interest.

“For a very long period of time we’re going to be on the ground, even if it’s solely in support of its U.S. weapons systems,” said Ryan C. Crocker, who was the American ambassador in Baghdad until 2009 and helped to negotiate the agreement that tethers the two countries and mandates that all American troops leave Iraq by the end of 2011.

Even as that deadline was negotiated, he said, a longer-lasting, though significantly smaller, presence of American forces had always been considered to be likely.

At the moment, five months after national elections, there is still no Iraqi government to begin talking about what any post-2011 arrangement might entail. But many Iraqi officials deem it quietly necessary on a number of fronts: Iraq is buying more and more sophisticated American weapons, like tanks and warplanes, and will need Americans here for training and maintenance. At the same time, training is intensifying for the Iraq Army to learn not only how to battle internal insurgents, but also how to protect its national borders — a project that will take many years.

And many Americans, most notably Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., have long argued that it is not in America’s interest to withdraw completely — even if Mr. Obama rose to national prominence opposing the Iraq war and ran for president promising to end it.