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Friday, June 19, 2026

US official says Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreed as Trump lashes out Iran deal critics – Middle East crisis live

US official says Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreed as Trump lashes out Iran deal critics – Middle East crisis live

"US official tells Reuters news agency that ceasefire has now come into effect

Smoke rises above a city from a bombing.
Smoke rises following an Israeli strike in Nabatiyeh, southern Lebanon. Photograph: Reuters

At least 21 people killed in Israeli strikes in Lebanon, local health officials say

Israeli airstrikes across southern and eastern Lebanon today have killed at least 21 people, according to the Lebanese health officials.

The IDF also announced four of its soldiers were killed in Lebanon as violence escalated between the Israeli military and Hezbollah overnight.

Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed 18 people and wounded 33, the country’s health ministry said, according to the state-run National News Agency. Another three people were killed and six injured in attacks in the eastern Baalbek area, which had been largely spared since the start of the renewed conflict in March.

The IDF said the strikes were in response to “repeated violations of the ceasefire by Hezbollah”.

Smoke rises above a city from a bombing.
Smoke rises following an Israeli strike in Nabatiyeh, southern Lebanon. Photograph: Reuters

Lebanese president says Israel's attacks 'a dangerous and reprehensible escalation'

The president of Lebanon, Joseph Aoun, condemned Israel’s attacks in his country as “a dangerous and reprehensible escalation”.

In a statement issued by the Lebanese presidency, Aoun said the Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon “effectively undermine all ongoing attempts to consolidate the ceasefire and end the war”.

The statement said:

What we are witnessing today in the south and the Bekaa – an escalation of Israeli attacks and further killing and destruction – constitutes a dangerous and reprehensible escalation, particularly as it has affected dozens of innocent people, including women and children, and effectively undermines all ongoing attempts to consolidate the ceasefire and end the war, particularly following the recent developments between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran.

However, this will not prevent us from working to achieve a comprehensive ceasefire as soon as possible; this is what I have recommended to the Lebanese negotiating delegation for the forthcoming round of talks in Washington. There can be no compromise on this issue, as a comprehensive ceasefire is the prerequisite for discussing other matters, the most important of which are the Israeli withdrawal, the deployment of the army and the return of prisoners.”

Two children sat in the back of a van with their belongings.
A displaced family rides with their belongings in the back of a van as they leave southern Lebanon on the Tyre-Sidon highway following Israeli strikes. Photograph: Hassan Ammar/AP"
US official says Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreed as Trump lashes out Iran deal critics – Middle East crisis live

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Thursday, June 18, 2026

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Read the full text of Trump's preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement to end the war

 

Read the full text of Trump's preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement to end the war


















President Trump arrives for a gala dinner at the Versailles Palace in Versailles, France, on Wednesday, where the White House later said he signed the memorandum of understanding with Iran.

Nathan Laine/Bloomberg via Getty Images

“NPR has obtained a copy of the framework agreement to end the war with Iran. A source shared the text on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the preliminary deal.

Formally called a "memorandum of understanding," the text was signed Wednesday by President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, as well as by the prime minister of Pakistan, which mediated between the US. and Iran.

The text is as follows:

Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America

The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America have jointly agreed, in good faith, on ......... 2026, at…….., on the following:

1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, and their allies in the current war, by signing this MoU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final Deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.

2. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs.

3. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America commit to negotiating and achieving the final Deal, in maximum 60 days extendable with mutual consent.

4. Immediately upon the signing of this MoU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final Deal.

5. Upon the signing of this MoU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels, with no charge for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and de-mining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman, to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussions with other Persian Gulf Littoral States, in line with applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

6. The United States of America undertakes, with regional partners, to develop a definitive mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 Billion, for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of final Deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.

PAGE 2

7. The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned and express their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon, in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph 7, with the minimum methodology to be down blending on-site, under the supervision of the IAEA. The two Parties also agree to discuss the issue of enrichment, and other mutually agreed matters relating to the Islamic Republic of Iran's nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final Deal. The final Deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned and express their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

9. Pending the final Deal, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America agree to maintain the status quo; the Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions, and will not deploy any additional forces in the region.

10. The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MoU, and until the termination of sanctions, the U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

11. The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use, the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MoU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

12. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MoU and the future compliance of the final Deal.

PAGE 3

13. After signing this MoU, and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this MoU and the continuing implementation of these mcasures, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America will start negotiations regarding the final Deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.

14. The final Deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.“

The Spectacular Failure and Ruinous Costs of the Iran War

 

The Spectacular Failure and Ruinous Costs of the Iran War

“Even though an agreement has been reached, nations around the world will be feeling the effects of the war for some time.

Donald Trump points with an American flag in the background.

Photograph by Mandel Ngan / AFP / Getty

“Ships of the world, start your engines,” President Donald Trump urged Sunday, on Truth Social. “Let the oil flow!” He was writing after announcing an apparent deal with Iran to halt the ongoing war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point in global supply chains which the Iranian regime has largely blocked since the United States and Israel began their bombing campaign at the end of February. The terms of the initial memorandum of understanding were leaked in the media and later corroborated by U.S. officials. The memorandum also provides for an end to the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and vessels, and an over-all cessation of hostilities, including in Lebanon, which is in the grip of an Israeli invasion. In the early phase of the war, Trump said he was gifting Iranians a chance to overthrow their theocratic rulers, but, though weakened, the regime remains in place, as does its arsenal of ballistic missiles and other offensive capabilities. Over the weekend, Trump told the Wall Street Journal that he “never cared about regime change” and that the current leadership in Tehran marked “the most rational group yet.” According to the leaked draft, Iran will vow not to pursue nuclear weapons, a reiteration of a pledge made many times before. Reports also suggest that Iran expects to receive, through some unspecified payment mechanism, potentially hundreds of billions of dollars in de-facto reparations for damage caused by the war. A number of regional intermediaries, including Pakistan and Qatar, helped broker this framework agreement, which was reportedly signed by Trump and Iranian officials on Wednesday, two days before an announced signing ceremony in Switzerland was supposed to take place. Israel appears to have been sidelined as the truce was worked out, much to the chagrin of its political leadership.

Early on Wednesday, a joint communiqué from the members of the Group of Seven (G-7) at a summit in Évian-les-Bains, France, which Trump attended, hailed the “historic opportunity” presented by the agreement and indicated that it is “ready to contribute to its implementation.” Later in the day, the President told reporters about the agreement, “Nobody knows what it is but it’s very strong.” But the agreement isn’t final, he said, adding, “It’s a memorandum of understanding and, if I don’t like it, we’ll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head.” Apparently, he did like it, given the reports of its signing. Still, it’s difficult to see what’s emerging as anything other than a humiliating climbdown for a President who started a war of choice vowing to transform the Middle East. Instead, the war and its aftermath may represent a defining failure for Trump’s foreign policy—one that may even have strengthened Iran in the region. The U.S. and Iran are supposed to spend the next two months working out the details of a wider agreement regarding the latter’s nuclear program. If they reach any broader settlement, it’s doubtful that its terms would be superior to what was reportedly on offer right before the war began, or to what was established by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action—the 2015 nuclear deal forged by President Barack Obama with other world powers, which Trump scrapped during his first term.

During the three and a half months since the start of war, American and Israeli air strikes hit hundreds of targets in Iran in dozens of cities, killing at least thirty-four hundred people, injuring thousands more, and destroying or damaging civilian infrastructure, including universities, schools, and water facilities. Israel’s parallel operations in Lebanon, to punish Iran’s proxy Hezbollah, have killed even more people and displaced close to a fifth of the population. Iran’s reprisals hit targets across the region, wounding hundreds and grounding flights in the big cities of the Gulf. A return of some degree of stability would, of course, be a relief, but even many who supported Trump at the start of the war are frustrated by the course of events. Some Iranian dissidents feel abandoned by a White House that once embraced their cause. Washington hawks who seemed content for the President to disregard Congress in rushing to war are now demanding more congressional scrutiny over the terms of a future peace. And, in Israel, both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s opponents and his coalition partners see the developments as a disaster for Israeli national-security interests, with Hezbollah still standing in Lebanon and the Iranian regime not just standing but newly emboldened.

The war has always been unpopular in this country. Close to sixty per cent of American adults surveyed by Pew believe that the U.S. made the “wrong decision” in attacking Iran. In May, Pentagon officials estimated the war had already cost U.S. taxpayers some twenty-nine billion dollars. Around the same time, the Washington Post reported that the U.S. had used up much of its inventory of advanced missile-defense interceptors, expending more of these munitions in defense of Israeli territory than Israeli forces had themselves. In April, Tom Fletcher, the United Nations’ humanitarian chief, noted that the sums being spent by the U.S. on its “reckless war” could fund the U.N.’s “plan to save eighty-seven million lives” in dire humanitarian need around the world.

Whatever hardships Americans may have endured—including higher gas prices and creeping inflation—far greater ones have been felt elsewhere. The downstream impact of the conflict has been acute in Asia, Europe, and Africa, where there is far greater reliance on fossil fuels coming from the Persian Gulf, and greater vulnerability to the soaring costs of energy, fertilizers, and industrial chemicals exported from the region. Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, said in April that the combined oil-and-gas crisis was more grave than the oil shocks of the nineteen-seventies, and that “the world has never experienced a disruption to energy supply of such magnitude.”

To deal with surging prices and diminishing reserves, some countries have implemented policies to ration cooking gas and gasoline. Others, such as Pakistan and the Philippines, have shuttered businesses and schools and tried to mandate working from home. Supply chains for plastics, fertilizers, and other vital supplies have also been blocked. The resulting costs to productivity will take a while to gauge. But, earlier this month, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, which is made up of thirty-eight advanced economies around the world, forecast that global growth is now expected to slow from 3.4 per cent in 2025 to 2.8 per cent in 2026, a contraction caused primarily by the effects of the war. An analysis by the Institute for Economics and Peace, a nonpartisan think tank headquartered in Sydney, forecast that a resumption of hostilities with Iran could cost the global economy some $2.2 trillion. The U.N. warned that spiking costs could drive forty-five million people around the world into acute hunger if the war continues through June.

The reopening of the strait, moreover, won’t provide an immediate panacea. The International Transport Workers’ Federation, which represents many of the sailors who are stuck aboard ships stalled in the Persian Gulf, said that “the backlog of stranded vessels and the need for crew changes and rest, mean a realistic return to normal shipping patterns is weeks, if not months, away.” In a memo this month, analysts at the Dutch multinational firm I.N.G. described the impact on fertilizer and food markets as “a tragedy unfolding in slow motion.” They acknowledged that a truce could lead to a resumption in flows of some goods, but warned that “the outlook is likely to remain fragile as a more permanent deal could be challenging to secure.” The markets have to price in the unpredictability and the volatility that have characterized Trump’s approach so far.

The chaos has compounded existing difficulties for poorer or developing economies, many of which were already wracked by public-debt crises that deepened in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic. “The global economy is not falling off of a cliff, but it has downshifted sharply and many developing economies are entering this shock with thinner buffers and fewer shock absorbers,” Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s deputy chief economist, said last week. David Miliband, the head of the International Rescue Committee (I.R.C.), describes “shock absorbers” as the sorts of groups in civil society, in addition to state institutions, “that catch people when they fall.” They could be “a health service that’s able to isolate you if you’ve got Ebola” or “a cash-support scheme in Lebanon that’s able to support you for more than a month for a war that’s gone on for three months,” he told me. But there are fewer such services now, not least because many of the wealthiest nations have slashed their commitments to international aid; Oxfam calculated that the G-7 countries alone cut their aid budgets by a collective forty-eight billion dollars between 2024 and 2025—the largest reduction of its kind in history. Most of this drop was caused by the Trump Administration’s destruction of U.S.A.I.D., under DOGE, but other nations didn’t try to fill that void; instead, they quietly followed suit.

Trump’s move dislodged what Miliband called “an anchor” in the global humanitarian system. “If you pull up the anchor in choppy seas, the boat rocks backward and forward, and the passengers get seasick,” he said. “That’s the situation we’re in.” In a recent report, the I.R.C. noted that many of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, including the tragedy in Sudan, “have only intensified” since the Iran war began, “while the systems meant to contain them are breaking down.” As Miliband put it, “The Iran war couldn’t have happened at a worse time, and it set off a chain of events that’s very damaging.”

That turmoil did not seem to be weighing on the man most responsible for unleashing it. On Wednesday, at the G-7 summit, Trump entered a meeting room late and, while taking a seat alongside other world leaders, announced, to their laughter, “I’m the boss.” ♦

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Moscow oil refinery struck in Ukraine’s biggest air raid on city since start of war | Russia | The Guardian

Moscow oil refinery struck in Ukraine’s biggest air raid on city since start of war

"Kyiv says attack, which also forced evacuation at Russia’s biggest airport, was in response to strike on historic monastery

Ukrainian drones hit oil refinery and residential building in Moscow – video

Ukrainian drones have hit several locations across Moscow in Kyiv’s biggest air raid on the city since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, setting a major ⁠oil refinery on fire and forcing evacuations at the country’s largest airport.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the attack as a response to Russia’s strike on a historic Kyiv monastery complex earlier this week. “We do not want this war and never did,” the Ukrainian president said in a voice message to journalists. “But if Ukraine is going to burn, your Moscow will burn too … It is time to end the aggression, time to end this war.”

Russia’s foreign minister in turn announced it would launch huge “group strikes” on Ukraine “on a regular basis” in response to the Moscow raid.

The scale of Ukraine’s long-range attack, apparently designed to shut down operations at the key oil refinery in the Kapotnya area, caught most people by surprise in a city that does not typically warn residents with air raid alarms, and prompted panicked messages on social media.

According to reports, many residents in Moscow’s outlying suburbs learned of the attack only when they saw drones flying overhead. “No SMS at all, no sirens. All the information is in local chats – there’s a lot more there than on TV,” a Moscow resident said in a message to the independent, foreign-based Russian news site Meduza.

Footage posted online showed three plumes of smoke rising from the Kapotnya refinery. The strike was the second in two days on the facility, which local authorities claimed injured at least 17 people, including two children. The refinery, one of Moscow’s most important energy facilities, supplies up to 40% of the capital’s petrol and about 50% of its diesel fuel.

A black plume of smoke rises over Moscow oil refinery after Ukrainian drone attack

Russia said its ⁠air defence systems ​intercepted and ⁠destroyed 555 Ukrainian drones over ⁠multiple ​regions ‌overnight. The number actually shot down could not be independently confirmed.

Vladimir Putin is in Kazan, 430 miles (700km) east of Moscow, hosting leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as Russia seeks to bolster business and other ties.

Kyiv was hit this week by a major strike of ballistic missiles and drones in a marked escalation of the air war. Putin had warned of impending “systemic strikes” on Ukraine.

The Moscow attack came hours after Zelenskyy said he had held “an important coordination call” with the presidents of the US and France and had won vital pledges of further support from this week’s international G7 summit.

European leaders are optimistic about Ukraine’s prospects. Ahead of a summit on Thursday evening in Brussels, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said the tide was turning: “We see Ukraine is holding the line, even partially regaining territory,” she said, adding that Russia was struggling and imposing “a digital iron curtain on their people” – a reference to internet censorship.

Arriving in Brussels for talks with EU leaders, Zelenskyy said it was “really a great moment for Ukraine”, hailing the decision to start formal membership talks with the bloc earlier this week. He said he hoped they could discuss further support for Ukraine to pressure Putin to the negotiating table.

The European Council president, António Costa, was reported by Bloomberg on Wednesday to have contacted the Kremlin in an attempt to engage Putin in discussions about ending the war. A spokesperson for Costa has not commented.

An EU official told the Guardian that in the past few weeks “brief contacts at diplomatic level” had been made “to open communication channels, but nothing was discussed on substance”. The official said that in any future scenario “the EU has specific interests that will need to be defended, therefore it is important to have established diplomatic channels with Russia”.

Zelenskyy was expected to discuss with European leaders the possibility of a system to defend against ballistic missiles. Russia has repeatedly struck Ukraine with those types of missiles, which air defences struggle to counter.

The British defence secretary, Dan Jarvis, announced on Thursday at a meeting of western allies in Brussels that the UK would pay £750m to supply Kyiv with a further 150,000 Ukrainian-made drones and more than 350 air defence missiles.

The funding comes from a £2.26bn loan taken out against the interest generated by Russian central bank assets frozen since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

Footage of the Moscow strikes appeared to show the use of Ukrainian Bars hybrid drone-cruise missiles, first used last year. They had been believed to have a range of about 350-500 miles (600-800km), designed for precision targeting, but their use against Moscow would suggest a longer range.

Ukraine is rapidly catching up with Russia in its ability to mass-produce long-range strike weapons. Kyiv has stepped up its drone strikes on Russia in recent months, hitting oil refineries that fund Moscow’s war chest, as diplomatic talks on ending the conflict remain stalled.

At least seven drones appear to have beaten Russia’s air defences, including one that appeared to hit a high-rise building in Zhukovsky district. Traffic was halted ​on Moscow’s ring road near ⁠the refinery, the broadcaster RIA ​cited ‌the ​interior ministry ​as saying, while air traffic was disrupted at Vnukovo, Sheremetyevo and Zhukovsky airports.

Footage posted on social media appeared to show a Russian portable air defence system operator attempting to shoot down a Ukrainian strike drone moments before it struck the oil refinery.

A strike on Tuesday was understood to have already halted operations at the Kapotnya refinery, adding to widespread damage to Russian energy facilities and extending a ​fuel crisis deeper into the country.

Russia, the world’s third biggest oil producer and ‌a major oil and fuel exporter, is to import fuel by sea this month as it seeks to manage a shortage after extensive Ukrainian drone attacks on its refineries.

Russian hardliners called for Moscow to retaliate, with some urging the Kremlin to consider using nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

“What else has to happen before we start fighting for real?” wrote the ultraconservative billionaire Konstantin Malofeev on Telegram. “Why aren’t we using the nuclear weapons that our ancestors created and stockpiled through the efforts of the entire country precisely for moments like this?”

Andrey Gurulyov, a retired lieutenant general and state duma deputy, called for Russia to “strike the enemy mercilessly” in response to the attack. “We need to strengthen our air defence system, but most importantly, we need to hit the enemy,” he told RTVI. “Hit the enemy mercilessly, without overthinking it.”

Russia launched more than 200 drones and multiple ballistic missiles at Ukraine between late Wednesday and early Thursday, according to the Ukrainian air force.

Additional reporting by Dan Sabbagh; Reuters and AP contributed to this report"

Moscow oil refinery struck in Ukraine’s biggest air raid on city since start of war | Russia | The Guardian

Trump’s war accomplished nothing – the Iran deal is proof | Kenneth Roth | The Guardian

Trump’s war accomplished nothing – the Iran deal is proof | Kenneth Roth

"No one gets a Nobel peace prize for ending a war he started, let alone for a pointless war of aggression that set back the causes that supposedly prompted the conflict. No amount of Donald Trump’s spin can obscure the fact that his newly announced deal with Iran is one big lesson in why this war should never have been launched.

The text of the deal, a 14-point memorandum of understanding, underscores its emptiness. The tyrants of Tehran are undoubtedly celebrating.

Trump’s political challenge is to show that his deal is better than the one negotiated by Barack Obama in 2015 and abandoned by Trump in 2018 – that Trump’s bombing produced a result superior to Obama’s diplomacy. The problem for Trump is that it didn’t. He did worse.

Trump will probably spotlight two supposed “victories”. First, Iran “reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons”. But it made that pledge in the Obama accord and many times since then. The key issue is whether the steps that could lead to a nuclear weapon are curtailed.

To that end, Obama imposed severe restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. Trump can only hope to secure similar limitations during negotiations that are supposed to be concluded over the next 60 days. But such complex issues are unlikely to be settled so quickly, and the deal allows for the deadline to be extended by mutual consent.

Still to be resolved are whether and for how long Iran will limit what it calls its right to enrich uranium, whether it will export or dilute its half-tonne of highly enriched uranium, and whether it will dismantle its nuclear program. The deal says only that in a final accord such issues will be resolved by “mutual agreement”, hardly an airtight commitment. Trump will tie sanctions relief to Iranian concessions on these points, but that could have been accomplished through diplomacy, without resorting to war.

Second, Trump will highlight that Iran has agreed to reopen the strait of Hormuz, where its restrictions on movement of about 20% of the world’s oil and gas led to galloping prices and a surge in worldwide inflation. But Iran only closed the strait once Trump initiated his war of choice. Now Tehran sees the power of this new weapon. The genie is out of the bottle and will not easily be lured back.

Trump announced that the strait would be “permanently toll free”. But the published deal doesn’t say that. And Iranian officials have maintained the right to impose fees for unspecified services, which might mean no more than the “service” of not firing on boats passing through. Trump’s war has left global commerce worse off.

The deal is noteworthy for what it does not include. There is nothing on Iran’s ballistic missile program, nothing on Iran’s military support for regional allies such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, nothing on regime change in Tehran. These were all reasons cited by Trump for going to war. In these areas, his bombing accomplished nothing.

Indeed, in lieu of regime change, he obtained regime hardening, as US and Israeli bombers killed off Iranian clerical leaders and left Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials in charge.

Meanwhile, the Iranian government can trumpet its own victories. The deal requires that Israel end its attacks in Lebanon.

That does give Benjamin Netanyahu the opportunity to play spoiler, given his quest for ongoing war with Iran. But Netanyahu may not dare. Trump has become overt in his anger at the Israeli prime minister, calling him “fucking crazy” and “a very difficult guy”, and explicitly criticizing his tendency to attack entire apartment buildings using the pretext of attacking a single Hezbollah member (although the same criticism can be made of Israel’s disproportionate attacks in Gaza, which Trump aided and abetted).

As soon as the accord is signed, Trump commits to issue “waivers” for all sanctions on Iranian petroleum exports. That is a reward for simply returning to the status quo that existed in February before Trump opted for bombing over negotiation.

Then, according to the “progress of negotiations” toward a final agreement, Trump agrees to release frozen Iranian assets. Once a final accord is reached, Trump commits to lifting all sanctions on the country. In addition, the deal includes a $300bn private fundfor “rehabilitation and economic development of Iran”.

These economic incentives toward a deal were all available in February as well. The bombing made no positive difference.

If there is a silver lining in this debacle, it is that the utter failure of Trump’s military adventure in Iran may give him pause before trying another. (The same could be said for Vladimir Putin’s disastrous invasion of Ukraine.) Resorting to military force is often far more complicated than Trump’s quick removal of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro. Might makes right, in Trump’s warped view, but it doesn’t guarantee victory. There turns out to be a role for diplomacy after all.

Trump’s war accomplished nothing – the Iran deal is proof | Kenneth Roth | The Guardian