Armwood Editorial And Opinion Blog: Who’s Winning the Race for Congress?

Monday, September 21, 2026

Who’s Winning the Race for Congress?

“Summary

Democrats hold momentum with polling leads, while Republicans retain map and funding advantages. Republicans consider resource shifts in Georgia and North Carolina. Ad spending favors Republicans in key Senate races; House control hinges on 21 tossups.

We’re 43 days away from the midterms. Here’s the state of play.

Sept. 21, 2026Updated 6:17 a.m. ET

The election is in 43 days.

The bad news for Republicans is that the battleground map keeps shifting to redder and redder territory.

Places like Kansas — where Democrats have not won a Senate seat in nearly a century — now appear to feature actual, well, races. President Trump’s operation is spending millions of dollars in congressional districts he won by double digits.

The good news for Republicans is that almost none of these campaigns are lost causes — yet. District by district, state by state, the races that will decide the majorities remain close. Democrats are still defending some competitive seats that they might have hoped to lock up by now. For instance, they recently plunged in $10 million more to defend a Michigan Senate seat they already hold.

With a little more than six weeks until Election Day, that is the tension at the heart of the midterm map. The Democrats have the momentum. Republicans have the map and the money.

The Battle for the Senate

9 other races
and 34 not up for re-election

50 seats

14 other races
and 31 not up for re-election

It’s a critical couple of weeks for Representative Mike Collins, the Republican nominee in Georgia, and Michael Whatley, the Republican nominee in North Carolina.

Both have consistently trailed in polls, and Republican strategists are actively discussing whether to cut bait, especially on Collins, as The Times reported last week.

At a donor meeting earlier this month in Dallas, Collins was notably missing from a slide presentation of the party’s top
“quality” recruits this cycle — though he was in the room as the presentation was made.

Republicans haven’t given up on Georgia or North Carolina. President Trump campaigned for Whatley last week in North Carolina. Vice President JD Vance will be there on Monday. And Senator John Thune of South Dakota, the Republican majority leader, is headed to Atlanta on Thursday to headline a fund-raiser for Collins.

But as Thune said last week, Republicans “obviously make decisions when it comes to resources” on a stretched map.

Translation: Improve soon in the polls — or else.

Inside the Air Wars

The polls are looking good for Democrats. The money is not — at least in terms of the ad spending in the top Senate races.

Democrats are set to be outspent on television and radio in every major contest outside of Georgia between Labor Day and Election Day.

Here are the gaps for the coming week, according to data from AdImpact, the ad-tracking service.

In Texas, Republicans will have a $25.9 million to $1.1 million edge in the coming week.

In Michigan, it’s nearly $9.1 million to $3.2 million.

And in Ohio, it’s $12.6 million to $6.8 million.

One Key Metric

The highest-ever price of a gallon of diesel: $6.50.

The price of diesel on Sunday, according to AAA: $6.50.

The Race for the House

197 solidly or likely Dem.

218 districts
for control

201 solidly or likely Rep.

Republicans are seeing the same polls that the public is. The Times measured a nearly 9-percentage-point edge for Democrats on the congressional ballot last week — akin to the margin in the 2018 Democratic wave.

But Republicans are openly hoping those numbers are understating G.O.P. support.

“None of us should put any stock in polls anymore because they are wildly inaccurate; we all know that,” Speaker Mike Johnson said last week at the Capitol. “We know this is going to be a tight race. It is going to be decided by about 20 jump-ball swing districts around the country.”

His math is not wrong. The Cook Political Report currently rates 206 seats as leaning Democratic and 208 as leaning Republican. Democrats will need to win a majority of the 21 tossup seats to win the majority (16 of the 21 are currently held by the G.O.P.).

The Money

Democrats appear to believe one swing district is more safely in their hands.

On Friday, the leading House Democratic super PAC, House Majority PAC, began to pull all its reservations for the coming week in Michigan’s 8th district, where Representative Kristen McDonald Rivet, a Democrat, is seeking re-election in a seat that Trump carried in 2024. The total being canceled is around $1 million and can be seen as a sign of bullishness for Democrats. Republicans still have television time booked in the seat.

The Democratic House Majority PAC is planning to book its first television ads in two Republican-held seats in the New York media market on Monday, according to CJ Warnke, the group’s spokesman. The buy is $2.4 million in cable time targeting Representative Mike Lawler of New York and Representative Thomas Kean Jr. of New Jersey.

Top Talker

The ad seen ’round the political world last week was from Representative Maria Elvira Salazar, Republican of Florida, whose straight-to-camera rebuke of Trump’s hard-line immigration policies included the line, “The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.”

Candidates in swing seats often seek distance from an unpopular president. But Trump carried Salazar’s district with 57 percent of the vote. Her decision to so aggressively break with him suggests his numbers have cratered among South Florida’s Hispanic population.

Salazar said on CBS on Sunday that she spoke with Trump since the ad was released and that he was “very courteous, very receptive.” Of course, Salazar has taken the familiar tack of not blaming Trump for his own policies but rather unnamed aides. “I think that some of his advisers are compromising his legacy,” she said on Sunday.

One Poll Number

In last week’s Times/Siena poll, Trump’s approval rating among Hispanic voters was at only 26 percent, with 69 percent disapproving.

On the Issues

Other Republicans sought distance from the president in different ways. In a floor vote, two Republicans, Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks andRepresentative Zach Nunn, both of Iowa and running in top battleground, voted for the first time for President Trump to end the war in Iran or seek authorization to continue it.

They had previously opposed restrictions.

On the Ground

Another Iowa Republican, Representative Ashley Hinson, did not attend Vice President JD Vance’s event in the state on Friday.

“I know she couldn’t be here today,” Vance told the crowd, “but are we going to elect Ashley Hinson?”

Quote of the Week

Senator John Kennedy, Republican of Louisiana, last week previewed his weekend travel to Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa to reporters on the Capitol steps in a way that colorfully captured the state of play.

“If you told me six months ago, I was going to be having to spend my time in those three states, I wouldn’t have believed you,” Mr. Kennedy said. “Those ought to be fat guy layups for us. Now we’re going to win there. But the races are close.”