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Thursday, April 18, 2024

Biden Is ‘Outraged.’ But Is He Willing to Use America’s Leverage With Israel? - The New York Times

Biden Is ‘Outraged.’ But Is He Willing to Use America’s Leverage With Israel?

This is the same callous and indifferent response we saw from Biden during the latter days of the "Civil Rights Movement" when he sided against the Civil Rights ,movement and supported White segregationist against bussing. Biden only supports people of color when it is in his direct interest. Otherwise he is and old fashioned redneck.

"President Biden, at least in public, has limited his responses to Israel’s war in Gaza to ever more indignant declarations.

A white car whose roof has a hole and the words “World Central Kitchen” written on it sits with a door open.
Israel’s attack on a World Central Kitchen convoy, which killed seven, is more evidence that the country “has not done enough to protect aid workers,” President Biden said.Mohammed Saber/EPA, via Shutterstock

By David E. Sanger and Peter Baker

David E. Sanger and Peter Baker have covered Middle East conflicts for several decades, from posts in Washington and around the world.

When President Biden said he was “outraged and heartbroken” about the killing of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza, his forceful language raised a natural question: Would this strike, even if a tragic error, lead him to put conditions on the weapons he sends to Israel?

So far, the White House has been silent on whether Mr. Biden’s anger is leading to a breaking point with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with whom every interaction has been tense. The two are scheduled to speak on Thursday, according to a senior Biden administration official. But in public, at least, Mr. Biden has limited his responses to ever more indignant declarations.

Launching a bombing campaign on the southern city of Rafah would cross a “red line,” Mr. Biden has insisted, without laying out the consequences. The attack on the World Central Kitchen convoy is more evidence that Israel “has not done enough to protect aid workers,” he said on Tuesday, without specifying how its behavior should change.

“I hope this will be the moment where the president changes course,” said Senator Chris Van Hollen, Democrat of Maryland and one of Mr. Biden’s most enthusiastic supporters, who pressed for months to place conditions on the arms the United States supplies. “Netanyahu ignored the president’s requests, and yet we send 2,000-pound bombs with no restrictions on their use.”

“We shouldn’t send bombs first and hope for some assurances later,” he concluded.

Conditions on how American arms are used are usually standard fare, some imposed by Congress and others by the president or secretary of state. Ukraine, for example, is not permitted to shoot American-made weapons into Russia, and even though it has generally complied, there is still debate within the administration about whether to give more powerful missiles to Kyiv if an aid package ever passes Congress.

But Israel has always been the exception. Even when Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the majority leader, gave an impassioned speech urging new elections in Israel — a clear effort to oust Mr. Netanyahu — he declined to call for limits on arms. When pressed the next day, Mr. Schumer said he did not even want to discuss the topic.

There are other steps Mr. Biden could demand. For example, the United States could insist that aid convoys be escorted by the Israel Defense Forces, or that nearby Israeli military units remain in constant communication with the aid providers, an issue two U.S. senators raised to Mr. Netanyahu in February.

The prime minister, one participant said, told an aide present at the meeting that he thought the problems surrounding safe passage for food and medicine had already been addressed. But he assured the senators, Chris Coons of Delaware and Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, both Democrats, that he would bring up the issue with his military commanders.

The strike on Monday suggests that those issues were never fully resolved.

Pressed by reporters on Wednesday about Mr. Biden’s thinking on the subject, John F. Kirby, a White House national security spokesman, pointed reporters to the president’s statement condemning the strike on the aid workers.

“I think you could sense the frustration in that statement yesterday,” Mr. Kirby said.

Mr. Biden’s defense secretary, Lloyd J. Austin III, reiterated that frustration on Wednesday in a call with the Israeli defense minister, Yoav Gallant, striking a significant change in tone from previous conversations with his Israeli counterpart that the Pentagon has summarized. Maj. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, said Mr. Austin “expressed his outrage at the Israeli strike” and “stressed the need to immediately take concrete steps to protect aid workers and Palestinian civilians in Gaza after repeated coordination failures with foreign aid groups.”

Mr. Austin also told Mr. Gallant that the strike reinforced U.S. concerns over the potential military campaign in Rafah.

On the day of the strike, Mr. Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, and Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken held a previously scheduled discussion with Israeli officials via secure video.

Mr. Kirby said the Americans urged the Israelis to have a comprehensive plan to evacuate the 1.5 million refugees in the Rafah region. He also said conversations would continue about “what Rafah looks like now and what their intentions are for operations against those Hamas battalions that are still there.”

While Mr. Kirby did not say so, officials familiar with those discussions said the United States still feared the Israelis did not have a credible plan for a comprehensive evacuation — a process they believe could take months. But the officials noted that Mr. Netanyahu has not yet launched the Rafah attacks, perhaps because Israeli forces are nowhere near ready, or perhaps because of the American pressure.

There have been other moments in the six months since Hamas’s Oct. 7 terrorist attacks when the United States has hit a wall in dealing with Mr. Netanyahu, and where declarations of common goals could not hide the fact that the two countries are deeply at odds about how to conduct the war.

But it is possible that the attack on the World Central Kitchen convoy, one of the most successful efforts to avoid famine in Gaza, was a breaking point for Mr. Biden.

He personally knows the famed Spanish American chef behind the operation, José Andrés, whose restaurants in Washington are regular haunts of the city’s power brokers. Mr. Biden called the chef on Tuesday, shortly before Mr. Andrés published a guest essay in The New York Times declaring that “Israel is better than the way this war is being waged.”

“It is better than blocking food and medicine to civilians,” he continued. “It is better than killing aid workers who had coordinated their movements with the Israel Defense Forces.”

But Mr. Biden consistently stops short of openly breaking with Mr. Netanyahu, a confrontation he believes will only make the prime minister more difficult to handle, aides say. The result is that Mr. Biden is in a box, criticized by the progressive wing of his party — and increasingly by moderates — for acting too cautiously, and unwilling to be perceived as limiting Israel’s ability to defend itself.

In fact, it left a sour taste among some of Mr. Biden’s critics that the president’s most visceral expression of anger at Israel’s military campaign came over the killing of seven foreign humanitarian workers rather than over the deaths of the many thousands of Palestinian civilians that preceded them.

“To me, the language of outrage, it’s noticeable because it’s the furthest he’s gone in his language but it’s also noticeable that he’s only gone this far when it’s Western aid workers,” said Yousef Munayyer, the head of the Palestine-Israel program at the Arab Center Washington D.C. “Of course it’s outrageous,” he added of the latest incident, “but these kinds of strikes, we’ve seen them repeatedly and the White House does not seem to be outraged over them.”

Mr. Munayyer said the disparity was particularly striking given Mr. Biden’s reputation for personal compassion. “He has presented himself as this empath-in-chief; that is his great quality,” Mr. Munayyer said. “And yet when it comes to Palestinian life, he just seems incapable of showing empathy to Palestinians.”

In recent weeks, Mr. Biden has tried to divorce his pressure campaign on Israel from his power, if he chose to use it, to limit the country’s arms supplies. Indeed, some veteran diplomats doubted this would be the moment that shifted Mr. Biden’s approach, despite his strong words.

“One would think ‘outrage’ would translate into a strong policy response, but so far, that does not appear to be the case,” said Daniel C. Kurtzer, a former ambassador to Israel. “Israeli apologies notwithstanding, this attack will substantially increase pressure on aid deliverers and thus worsen the humanitarian distress.”

Katie Rogers and Eric Schmitt contributed reporting.

David E. Sanger covers the Biden administration and national security. He has been a Times journalist for more than four decades and has written several books on challenges to American national security. More about David E. Sanger

Peter Baker is the chief White House correspondent for The Times. He has covered the last five presidents and sometimes writes analytical pieces that place presidents and their administrations in a larger context and historical framework. More about Peter Baker

A version of this article appears in print on April 4, 2024, Section A, Page 6 of the New York edition with the headline: Is Biden Willing to Use America’s Leverage With Israel?"

Biden Is ‘Outraged.’ But Is He Willing to Use America’s Leverage With Israel? - The New York Times

Kennedy Family to Endorse Biden, in a Show of Force Against RFK Jr. - The New York Times

Kennedy Clan to Endorse Biden, in a Show of Force Against R.F.K. Jr.

President Biden is traveling on Thursday to Philadelphia, where he is set to be endorsed by numerous members of the Kennedy family.Credit...Al Drago for The New York Times


"More than a dozen members of the storied political family will appear with the president in Philadelphia, rejecting one of their own as he worries Democrats with an independent bid.

A broad coalition of the Kennedy family will endorse President Biden on Thursday at a campaign rally in Philadelphia, pointedly rejecting one of their own in Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the independent candidate who many Democrats believe poses a significant threat to Mr. Biden’s re-election chances.

Among the relatives of Mr. Kennedy expected to back Mr. Biden are his siblings Joseph, Kerry, Rory, Kathleen, Maxwell and Christopher. The Biden campaign released a list of 15 Kennedys set to appear at the rally, but it said other family members would endorse the president as well. Kerry Kennedy will introduce Mr. Biden at the rally, the campaign said, and Joe Kennedy III, Mr. Kennedy’s nephew and a former Democratic congressman from Massachusetts, will do so at a second event.

The show of force will send the clearest signal yet that America’s most storied Democratic family is deeply fearful that one of its own could tip the 2024 election to former President Donald J. Trump, and hopes to use its influence to try to stop him.

“Nobody competes with President Biden when it comes to carrying on the legacies of John Kennedy and Robert Kennedy and Ted Kennedy,” Kerry Kennedy said on ABC’s “Good Morning America” on Thursday, adding: “I think there is no competition with him. We need to assure that he is elected.”

Many family members have previously expressed strong disapproval of Mr. Kennedy’s candidacy, voicing anguish about his promotion of conspiracy theories and confusion about why he is challenging a Democratic president they admire. Like many Democrats, they worry that he could help Mr. Trump win if he draws even a small number of votes away from Mr. Biden in the battleground states — contests that were decided by tens of thousands of votes in 2020.

Mr. Trump is likely to remain the main target of attacks at the Philadelphia event, but the symbolic repudiation of Mr. Kennedy will not be subtle.

“We can say today, with no less urgency, that our rights and freedoms are once again in peril,” Kerry Kennedy is expected to say, according to excerpts from her speech shared by the Biden campaign. “That is why we all need to come together in a campaign that should unite not only Democrats, but all Americans, including Republicans, and independents, who believe in what Lincoln called the better angels of our nature.”

A person familiar with the planning, who insisted on anonymity, said that Kennedy family members had approached the Biden team and requested a joint event for the endorsements.

And the family has telegraphed its intentions: Last month, members visited Mr. Biden at the White House for St. Patrick’s Day, sharing a photo of him with a large group of them. “From one proud Irish family to another — it was good to have you all back at the White House,” Mr. Biden wrote on social media.

Members of the Kennedy family also denounced an ad that a super PAC supporting Mr. Kennedy ran during the Super Bowl. The ad closely resembled a spot supporting John F. Kennedy, his uncle, during his 1960 bid for the White House.

With the election months away, and Mr. Kennedy still pursuing access to the ballot in many states, it’s hard to know whether he would draw more votes from Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden’s camp. But polls suggest that Mr. Trump’s base of support is much more fixed than Mr. Biden’s, meaning it’s possible that some of the president’s voters could be open to an alternative.

The Democratic Party has put together a team of lawyers aimed at tracking Mr. Kennedy’s threat, especially in battleground states. The group will also seek to counter other potential spoilers such as Cornel West, a progressive academic seeking the presidency, and the Green Party.

Democrats have already watched the collapse of one third-party effort they had nervously eyed: The centrist group No Labels, after seeking to set up a moderate politician with national recognition as an alternative to Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, announced early this month that it would abandon its attempt.

Mr. Kennedy holds a smorgasbord of policy positions not easily categorized by ideology. He has expressed liberal views on abortion, the environment and income inequality, but has also promoted false theories about the safety of vaccines and pushed arguments that are more common on the right.

This month, he questioned the Justice Department’s effort to prosecute those who rioted at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, downplaying the severity of the attack. His campaign also fired a consultant who had suggested that supporting Mr. Kennedy would help Mr. Trump defeat Mr. Biden.

Still, Mr. Trump has signaled that he, too, sees Mr. Kennedy as potentially attracting voters away from his campaign. He posted on social media last month that Mr. Kennedy was more “radical Left” than Mr. Biden, casting him as a liberal Democrat in disguise. Yet Mr. Trump has also privately expressed intrigue with the idea of choosing Mr. Kennedy as his running mate — a notion that those close to him consider unrealistic and that Mr. Kennedy himself rejected.

Mr. Biden’s rally in Philadelphia is the final major stop in a three-day swing through Pennsylvania. During the trip, he laid out his economic and tax agenda, repeatedly attacking Mr. Trump as wealthy, out of touch and an enemy of working people.

Members of the Kennedy family who appear at the rally are expected to invoke Robert F. Kennedy, Mr. Kennedy’s father.

“I can only imagine how Donald Trump’s outrageous lies and behavior would have horrified my father, Robert F. Kennedy, who proudly served as attorney general of the United States, and honored his pledge to uphold the law and protect the country,” Kerry Kennedy will say, according to her prepared remarks. “Daddy stood for equal justice, human rights and freedom from want and fear. Just as President Biden does today.”

After Mr. Biden speaks, Kennedy family members will make calls to voters and knock on doors, the Biden campaign said."

Kennedy Family to Endorse Biden, in a Show of Force Against RFK Jr. - The New York Times

Wednesday, April 17, 2024

Opinion | The Kamala Harris Moment Has Arrived - The New York Times

The Kamala Harris Moment Has Arrived

Vice President Harris walks onstage at an event in Raleigh in March.
Doug Mills/The New York Times

"One of Kamala Harris’s most memorable moments during the 2020 presidential election cycle was when, during a Democratic primary debate, she sharply criticized Joe Biden for working with segregationists in the Senate in their shared opposition to busing.

She personalized her criticism, saying: “There was a little girl in California who was a part of the second class to integrate her public schools, and she was bused to school every day. And that little girl was me.”

The power in the attack was not only the point being made but that she — a person affected from a group affected — was making it. Although some of Biden’s defenders saw her remark as a gratuitous broadside, there was an authenticity to the way she confronted the issue.

The verbal jab also aligned with the national zeitgeist at a time when calls for racial justice and the Black Lives Matter movement were ascendant.

She ticked up in the polls, and donations poured in. Ultimately, her candidacy didn’t catch fire, but the following summer, Biden, the eventual nominee, made a historic offer to Harris to join his ticket, leading to her becoming the first woman, first Black person and first Asian American to be vice president.

Fast-forward to now, when Vice President Harris has served nearly a full term alongside President Biden, and she is moving into another moment when the political stars are aligned for her as the perfect messenger on a subject that has fixed Americans’ attention and is central in the 2024 presidential campaign: reproductive rights.

This time, her target is Donald Trump. And being in a position to go on the offensive is something of a reversal of fortune for a vice president who has endured withering — often unfair — attacks and who struggled to define herself in the role.

In October, The Atlantic’s Elaina Plott Calabro profiled Harris under the headline “The Kamala Harris Problem,” writing that “Harris’s reputation has never quite recovered” from some early blunders during her term. The article includes a particularly blunt quote from the former Obama administration adviser David Axelrod about a perceived risk aversion born of insecurity: “It looked as if she didn’t know where to plant her feet. That she wasn’t sort of grounded, that she didn’t know exactly who she was.”

Criticisms of Harris have been relentless, ranging from legitimate challenges to her policy statements to ridiculous commentary about her laugh. Much of it has seemed tinged with gender bias.

This has all led Harris to struggle in the polls. Her approval rating, like Biden’s, has languished below 50 percent for most of her term.

And she remains a source of concern, a perceived vulnerability to Biden’s re-election. In March, the Washington Post columnist Kathleen Parker wrote that Harris should bow out for the sake of the country, absurdly comparing her to Sarah Palin in 2008.

Over and over in her failed run for this year’s Republican nomination, Nikki Haley pointed to the possibility of a future Harris presidency as a scare tactic, saying in an August interview on “Good Morning America”: “There is no way Joe Biden is going to finish his term. I think Kamala Harris is going to be the next president, and that should send a chill up every American’s spine.”

But the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade and Republicans’ lust to enact increasingly regressive policies to restrict reproductive rights in states across the country have made Harris’s voice an essential one in the campaign.

In December, Harris announced her nationwide Fight for Reproductive Freedoms tour.

In March, she became what is believed to be the first vice president to pay an official visit to an abortion clinic (no president has done so), when she visited a Planned Parenthood clinic in St. Paul, Minn.

No matter how sensitive and knowledgeable men try to be on the issue of reproductive rights, there are still things that we cannot fully connect to. Harris transcends that barrier not only because she’s a woman but also because of her background as a prosecutor.

In a February speech in Savannah, Ga., she said that she decided to specialize in prosecuting crimes of violence against women and children because in high school she learned that one of her best friends was being molested by her stepfather. Harris told that story as a way to underscore the repressive nature of abortion laws that don’t have exceptions for rape or incest.

She told the crowd, “The idea that someone who survives a crime of violence, a violation to their body, would then be told they don’t have the authority to decide what happens to their body next, that’s immoral.”

Harris may never be duly recognized for her contributions to the administration on a broad range of issues, but in the end that may not be her calling.

According to her office, since Roe was overturned, the vice president has held “more than 80 convenings in 20 states.” Being a trusted voice in favor of reproductive rights and against Republicans determined to restrict or eliminate them may be the greater contribution she can make to Biden’s re-election bid and to maintaining national stability.

With this issue, she has hit her stride. With it, the talk of her as a liability has been hushed, for some, by the clear realization of what she brings to the campaign. With it, Harris has a mission, and she’s on it.

Charles M. Blow is an Opinion columnist for The New York Times, writing about national politics, public opinion and social justice, with a focus on racial equality and L.G.B.T.Q. rights. @CharlesMBlow" 

Opinion | The Kamala Harris Moment Has Arrived - The New York Times

As Civil Rights Era Fades From Memory, Generation Gap Divides Black Voters

As Civil Rights Era Fades From Memory, Generation Gap Divides Black Voters

“Many older Black voters see moral and political reasons to vote. Younger Black voters feel far less motivated to cast a ballot for Democrats or even at all.

Loretta Green stands outside wearing a T-shirt that has a picture of her first voter registration card, dated to 1960, and says This Is Why I Vote.
“To me, voting is almost sacred,” Loretta Green of Atlanta said. “Look at what people went through. The struggles.”Alyssa Pointer for The New York Times

For years, Loretta Green has voted at her Southwest Atlanta precinct wearing the same custom T-shirt emblazoned with a photo of her first voter registration card, dated to 1960. The front of it reads: “This is why I vote.”

Since gaining the legal right, Ms. Green, 88, has participated in every possible election. This November will be no different, she said, when she casts a ballot for President Biden and Democrats down the ticket.

But conversations with her younger relatives, who have told her they’re unsure of voting or considering staying home, illustrate some of the challenges Mr. Biden’s campaign faces in reassembling his winning 2020 coalition, particularly in key battleground states like Georgia. While Ms. Green and many older Black voters are set on voting and already have plans in place to do so, younger Black voters, polling and focus group data show, feel far less motivated to cast a ballot for Democrats or even at all.

“To me, voting is almost sacred. Look at what people went through. The struggles. The people that allowed themselves to be beaten,” Ms. Green said of the civil rights movement that ignited her determination to vote in every election. “I think there are some young Blacks who probably feel like it didn’t even happen.”

Black voters have long been Democrats’ most loyal constituency, and high turnout from this bloc is crucial to Mr. Biden’s re-election. Any drop-off in support could imperil his chances of winning in November. And surveys have shown a striking generational divide within this bloc, driven by what many young people see as broken campaign promises and what party leaders have suggested is a difficulty in communicating Mr. Biden’s accomplishments to voters. 

There is still time for Democrats to close this gap. But growing discontent from young voters, especially concerning the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza — illustrated in an April New York Times/Siena College poll that shows just 4 percent of voters under 45 strongly approve of Mr. Biden’s handling of foreign policy — underlines the scale of the response that may be required of the president’s re-election campaign to bring young voters back into the fold. 

The stark difference between how older and younger Black voters respond to Mr. Biden and Democrats further highlights how different the messages to these voters will have to be.

“It is a generational divide. They don’t know the people who fought and died for their rights,” said Terrance Woodbury, a Democratic pollster, whose polling has found a nearly 30-point gap in support for Democrats among Black voters 18 to 49 years old relative to Black voters over 50. The latter group, he said, “does know those people. They saw that fight. Some of them were in that fight.”

Young Black voters point to higher costs of living, crises abroad and the old ages of both major candidates — Mr. Biden, 81, is the oldest U.S. president, and former President Donald J. Trump is 77 — as reasons for their discontent. They also say that they feel their lives have not improved under Mr. Biden’s presidency and that they have seen little of his campaign promises to lower housing costs, relieve student loan debt and promote racial equity.

These gripes are not unique to young Black voters. In polls, focus groups and interviews, record numbers of Black Americans across ages and genders have expressed disenchantment with Democratic leaders. And the generation gap in support for Democrats is not unique to one race. While most young voters support Democrats and turned out en masse during the 2020 presidential and 2022 midterm elections, many have also said they are deeply dissatisfied with the party and see less reason to turn back out for them.

“I can understand,” said India Juarez, 46, a Southwest Atlanta resident and Democratic voter. “You’ve got two people who really should be retired, enjoying their golden lives.”

Still, for older Black voters, many of whom see Mr. Trump as a threat to their fundamental rights, stopping him and other Republicans from reclaiming power in November outshines their frustrations with Democrats. By an overwhelming majority, Black voters continue to support Democratic candidates and some encourage the younger people in their lives to do the same.

Representative James E. Clyburn of South Carolina, an influential Biden ally who led civil rights protests in college, said he had spent much of his time outside Washington on college campuses to encourage students to vote. But, he said, “it needs to be an informed vote.”

“I don’t want people going out there talking about, ‘There’s no difference between Trump and Biden.’ I’m going to show them what the differences are. I want them to see why you need to go out and vote,” he said. He lauded the older Black voters who encourage their younger relatives to register and cast a ballot.

Tari Turner, 52, a Black Democratic voter from Detroit, is one of them. She said she often encourages her son, Brice Ballard, 34, to vote in elections even when he is reluctant to.

“I make him vote. He votes,” she said. “I don’t play about him voting. I’ll go pick him up to vote.”

This November, she said she planned to vote and support Mr. Biden’s re-election — a fact she acknowledged tepidly. Mr. Ballard, however, said he would not vote this year, despite his mother’s urging.

“I just don’t feel a connection with either candidate,” he said, adding that he voted in the last presidential election. If he did vote in November, he said he would more likely support Mr. Trump because he felt he was economically better off under his presidency.

Mr. Ballard’s feelings align with another concern for the Biden campaign: a rightward shift among nonwhite voters that is particularly pronounced among young men of color. Mr. Trump and his campaign have recognized this and made some efforts to court Black voters in recent months. Still, many are rooted in stereotype and often offensive. 

Mr. Biden’s campaign has aimed to encourage young Black voters to turn out through increased direct contact with them. Senior campaign officials for Mr. Biden underlined his campaign’s presence on college campuses, online and at music festivals and sporting events. They added that the campaign was hiring a director of campus engagement who will focus on mobilizing students at historically Black colleges and universities.

On the airwaves, the campaign is running several ads targeted to Black voters that emphasize the Biden administration’s work to lower health care costs and its large investments in historically Black colleges and universities. Democrats have also enlisted celebrities and local Black elected officials to serve as surrogates. 

That hasn’t kept concerns from some Black community leaders at bay. The New Georgia Project, a nonpartisan voter mobilization group, has held more focus groups with voters and adjusted its talking points during canvassing operations to address disaffected younger voters and the policy issues that matter to them. That way, said Kendra Cotton, the group’s chief executive, organizers can explain to young voters how government can work — rather than admonish them for declining to participate in the political process.

“This narrative that people have that ‘oh, you should vote because so many people died for you to have that right,’ that is not resonating with this new generation at all,” Ms. Cotton said. “And I think us continuing to propagate that narrative, no matter how true and rooted in fact that may be, is off-putting.”

Davan’te Jennings, the Georgia Young Democrats’ Black caucus chair, said he had held a range of conversations with younger Black voters who are not enthusiastic about voting. Some, he said, have expressed interest in supporting Republicans this November.

“They’re like, ‘We’ve been on this Democratic side for so long, they tell us all these things and nothing happens,’” he said. “Let’s see what’s over here on the Republican side.’”

Ms. Green, who said she, too, had concerns about young voters’ involvement, said she planned to volunteer with Mr. Biden’s campaign operation in Georgia to encourage young Black voters to turn out and to talk to them about the importance of their vote — something she sees as both morally and politically significant. 

“That’s why we have to tell them our story. They don’t understand it,” she said. “They haven’t seen it. And if we do not continue to talk to them, tell them the history, then they won’t know.”

Maya King is a politics reporter covering the Southeast, based in Atlanta. She covers campaigns, elections and movements in the American South, as well as national trends relating to Black voters and young people. More about Maya King

Tuesday, April 16, 2024

Opinion | Why Biden Has a Narrower Path to the Presidency Than Trump, in 11 Maps - The New York Times

Why Biden Has a Narrower Path to the Presidency Than Trump, in 11 Maps

Illustration by Akshita Chandra/The New York Times; Images by PhotoObjects.net, Yuji Sakai, and THEPALMER/Getty Images

By Doug Sosnik
Graphics by Quoctrung Bui

"Mr. Sosnik was a senior adviser to President Bill Clinton from 1994 to 2000 and has advised over 50 governors and U.S. senators.

While polls show the race for president is tightening, Joe Biden still has a narrower and more challenging path to winning the election than Donald Trump. The reason is the Electoral College: My analysis of voter history and polling shows a map that currently favors Mr. Trump, even though recent developments in Arizona improve Mr. Biden’s chances. The Biden campaign will need to decide this summer which states to contest hardest. Our Electoral College maps below lay out the best scenarios for him and Mr. Trump.

Seven states with close results determined who won both the 2020 and the 2016 presidential elections, and those same seven states will most likely play the same battleground role this fall: three industrial states – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – and four Sun Belt states – Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

The seven states that will most likely decide the 2024 presidential election

Mr. Biden’s declining popularity in the Sun Belt states is the main reason Mr. Trump has an edge right now. He is especially struggling with young and nonwhite voters there. Let’s take a closer look:

According to 2020 exit polls, Mr. Biden won 65 percent of Latino voters, who comprised roughly a fifth of voters in Arizona and Nevada. And Mr. Biden won 87 percent of Black voters, who made up 29 percent of the Georgia vote and 23 percent of the North Carolina vote. He also won 60 percent of voters aged 18 to 29. Now look at this year: A New York Times/Siena College poll released last weekend showed support for Mr. Biden had dropped 18 points with Black voters, 15 points with Latinos and 14 points with younger voters nationally.

Abortion could be a decisive issue in Mr. Biden stemming this erosion of support in Arizona and Nevada. The Arizona Supreme Court’s ruling last week that largely bans abortions raises the stakes of a likely ballot initiative on the issue there in November. It also appears likely that there will be a similar ballot measure in Nevada.

Nevertheless, the key to Mr. Biden’s victory is to perform well in the three industrial states. If Mr. Trump is able to win one or more of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Mr. Biden’s path to 270 electoral votes becomes even narrower.

If Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump remain ahead in the states where they are currently running strongest, the outcome of the election could come down to who wins Michigan and the two Sun Belt states where abortion will very likely be on the ballot, Arizona and Nevada.

Based on past voting, Mr. Trump will start out the general election with 219 electoral votes, compared to 226 votes for Mr. Biden, with 93 votes up for grabs.

Voter history and recent polling suggest that Mr. Trump is in a strong position to win North Carolina. Republicans have carried the state in every presidential election since 1976 except in 2008. In a Wall Street Journal battleground poll taken in March, Mr. Biden had only 37 percent job approval in the state. 

By winning North Carolina, Mr. Trump would have 235 electoral votes and two strong paths to 270.

The first path involves carrying Georgia, a state he lost by less than 12,000 votes in 2020. Before then, Republicans won Georgia in every election since 1992. If Mr. Trump carries North Carolina and Georgia, he would have a base of 251 electoral votes with four scenarios that get him to 270.

Scenario 1

Then all Mr. Trump needs is Pennsylvania 

Scenario 2

… or Michigan and Nevada 

Scenario 3

… or Michigan and Arizona 

Scenario 4

… or Arizona and Wisconsin.

The second and harder path for Mr. Trump would be if he carried only one Southern swing state – most likely North Carolina. He would have only 235 electoral votes and would need to win three of the six remaining battleground states.

Scenario 5

Then he would need to win Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin 

Scenario 6

… or Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

How Biden Can Win

It is difficult to see how Mr. Biden gets re-elected without doing well in the industrial battleground states – the so-called “Blue Wall” for Democrats. This is particularly true of Pennsylvania, given the state’s 19 electoral votes and Mr. Biden’s ties there and appeal to middle-class and blue-collar voters. That’s why he’s spending three days in Pennsylvania this week.

Mr. Biden will most likely need to win at least one other industrial battleground – with Wisconsin the most probable, since his polling numbers there are stronger than in the other battleground states.

A combination of factors have made winning Michigan much more challenging for Mr. Biden. Hamas’s attack on Israel and the war in Gaza have ripped apart the coalitions that enabled Democrats to do so well in the state since 2018. There are over 300,000 Arab Americans there, as well as a large Jewish population. Both groups were crucial to Mr. Biden’s success there in 2020.

In addition, Michigan voters’ perception of the economy is more negative compared with the other battleground states. In the Journal battleground poll, two-thirds of Michigan voters described the national economy negatively; more than half had a negative opinion of the state’s economy.

Now let’s look at Mr. Biden’s map.

Mr. Biden’s best strategy is based on winning Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which would give him 255 electoral votes (assuming that he carries the 2nd Congressional District in Nebraska). 

By carrying these states, Mr. Biden has several paths to 270, but the first three scenarios are his most viable.

Scenario 1

He just needs to win Michigan 

Scenario 2

… or  Arizona and Nevada 

Scenario 3

... or Georgia.

There are two other scenarios where Mr. Biden loses Wisconsin and keeps Pennsylvania. But that would mean winning states where Mr. Biden is polling much worse.

Scenario 4

They involve Mr. Biden winning Georgia and Arizona 

Scenario 5

… or Michigan and Georgia.

A Look Ahead

With over six months to go until Election Day, given the volatility in the world and the weaknesses of Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, it would be foolish to make firm predictions about specific results. And other electoral map scenarios are possible: Recent polling shows Mr. Biden with a narrow lead in Minnesota, a state that usually votes for Democrats for president. While it is mathematically possible for Mr. Biden to win without carrying Minnesota, it is unlikely he will be elected if he cannot carry this traditionally Democratic state.

For the third election cycle in a row, a small number of voters in a handful of states could determine the next president of the United States.

If the election remains close but Mr. Biden is unable to regain support from the core group of voters who propelled him to victory in 2020 — young and nonwhite voters — then we could be headed to a repeat of the 2016 election. The outcome of that election was decided by fewer than 80,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Last week’s abortion ruling in Arizona, and the likely abortion ballot initiatives in that state and Nevada, give Mr. Biden the possibility of being re-elected even if he loses Michigan. That’s why, if we have another close presidential election, I think Arizona, Michigan and Nevada will likely determine the outcome for Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump.

Based on my experience as Bill Clinton’s White House political director in his 1996 re-election campaign, I would take immediate advantage of Mr. Biden’s significant fund-raising advantage over Mr. Trump to focus on shoring up the president’s chances in Michigan and the must-win states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while at the same time trying to keep Georgia and North Carolina in play. Mr. Biden does not need to win either of those Sun Belt states to get re-elected, but draining Mr. Trump’s resources there could help him in other battleground states.

Doug Sosnik was a senior adviser to President Bill Clinton from 1994 to 2000 and has advised over 50 governors and U.S. senators."

Opinion | Why Biden Has a Narrower Path to the Presidency Than Trump, in 11 Maps - The New York Times