BBC News - China's dilemma on eccentric North Korea

BBC News - China's dilemma on eccentric North Korea

China's dilemma on eccentric North Korea

Page last updated at 17:41 GMT, Sunday, 30 May 2010 18:41 UK

By John SimpsonWorld affairs editor, BBC News, SeoulMr Wen (right) wants to avoid Korean instability at all costs

At the end of the three-way conference between President Lee Myung-bak of South Korea, Yukio Hatoyama, the Japanese prime minister, and Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, a great many people here must have been hoping to hear Mr Wen criticise North Korea for allegedly torpedoing the South Korean naval ship Cheonan two months ago.

At the very least they would have wanted him to accept publicly that North Korea had been responsible for it, as an international inquiry has maintained. If so, it was one of the most dangerous acts of war in the Korean peninsula in recent years.

Mr Wen refused. He sent his condolences to the families of the 46 South Korean sailors who were killed. He called for restraint. He hinted at the dire consequences of war. More..._
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This is an excellent analysis of why China has refused to condem North Korea's torpedo attack on the South Korea ship Cheonan.

China is ruthlessly acting in its own self interest, which it sees as maintaining regional stability at all costs.  Many followers of the two previous leftist Korean governments have looked to China, more than the United States as their model and future ally.  This incident should give the Korean left reason to pause and revaluate their position.  China's interest and South Korea's interest diverge when it comes to North Korea while the United States remains South Korea's defender and strongest ally. Recent polls show an increase in support for Korea's conservative president Lee Myung-bak. Maybe the reality that North Korea is still a real threat is being better understood by otherwise skeptics of the current administrations more hardline polices.  I am afraid however that many on the Korean left will simply blame this crisis on Mr. Lee's tougher stance towards North Korea. 

John H. Armwood

Pressure to bolster North Korean leader makes war inevitable, analyst says

Pressure to bolster North Korean leader makes war inevitable, analyst says

While some experts believe tensions on the Korean Peninsula will blow over, at least one analyst who has spent years studying the secretive and reclusive North Korean society predicts conflict before the end of the year.

It will be a war resulting from the North Korean need to bolster the "father figure" image of leader Kim Jong-il and a desire to preserve a nationalist ideology, said B.R. Myers, a professor of international studies at Dongseo University in Busan, South Korea.

Read more: http://www.nationalpost.com/most-popular/story.html?id=3085070#ixzz0pPoWBY2Y

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This article describes race based nationalism as an important motivator in the North korean decision making process. Race based nationalist ideology is found, in the thinking of many also in South Korean.  I experienced this first hand during my time living primarily in Busan, but also in Daejeon, South Korea,  The presence of this ideology in the south I believe works to pressure the South Korean government to work out an accommodation with the north and avoid a potential war with the north. 

John H. Armwood

In the Koreas, Five Possible Ways to War - NYTimes.com

In the Koreas, Five Possible Ways to War - NYTimes.com

By DAVID E. SANGER

WASHINGTON

USUALLY, there is a familiar cycle to Korea crises.

Like a street gang showing off its power to run amok in a well-heeled neighborhood, the North Koreans launch a missile over Japan or set off a nuclear test or stage an attack — as strong evidence indicates they did in March, when a South Korean warship was torpedoed. Expressions of outrage follow. So do vows that this time, the North Koreans will pay a steep price.

In time, though, the United States and North Korea’s neighbors — China, Japan, South Korea and Russia — remind one another that they have nothing to gain from a prolonged confrontation, much less a war. Gradually, sanctions get watered down. Negotiations reconvene. Soon the North hints it can be enticed or bribed into giving up a slice of its nuclear program. Eventually, the cycle repeats.

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The chances of this crisis cooling down are good given the South Korean populations distaste for punishing its northern "brothers" coupled with the political reality that war between the Koreas would bring about a catastrophe in the south. Seoul is a little more than thirty clicks from the Demilitarized Zone (the DMZ) and war would devastate this large, modern metropolis as it did twice during the Korean War. South Korea is in a jam. Even though Presiden Lee's conservative party wants to take a very tough stand against North Korea a large segment of the South Korean population does not support such a move.

John H. Armwood

Tiger Woods: Black, white, other | racial politics | Sport | The Guardian

Tiger Woods: Black, white, other | racial politics | Sport | The Guardian

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An excellent article on racial identity.

John H. Armwood

Tony Blair: Five Years After Gleneagles, Africa Has Reason to Hope

Tony Blair: Five Years After Gleneagles, Africa Has Reason to Hope


It is little surprise, in an ever faster moving world, that few of the leaders who took part in the G8 summit at Gleneagles in 2005 are still in place. We have moved on or, in some cases, were politely asked to move on by our electorates.

But the commitments made and the ambitions set were neither short-term nor personal. The long-term goal of those at Gleneagles was to help Africa make the most of its rich potential through increased support from the wealthiest countries coupled with fundamental reform within the continent. Hopes, crucially, which reflected the insistent demands of many millions of our citizens to act over the gross injustices disfiguring our world.

The Rachel Maddow Show - Maddow gets light saber. House repeals Don't Ask, Don't Tell. . .

The Rachel Maddow Show - Maddow gets light saber. House repeals Don't Ask, Don't Tell. . .

Now if the Senate will go ahead a pass this we can in this sad era of discrimination in the military.

John H. Armwood

BBC News - China 'will not protect' Korea ship attackers

BBC News - China 'will not protect' Korea ship attackers

China 'will not protect' Korea ship attackers

Page last updated at 10:43 GMT, Friday, 28 May 2010 11:43 UK

South Korea wants China to increase pressure on its old ally
China "will not protect" whoever sank a South Korean warship in March, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao has said.

"China objects to and condemns any act that destroys the peace and stability of the Korean peninsula," Mr Wen was quoted as saying after talks in Seoul.

South Korea has blamed the North for sinking the Cheonan with a torpedo.

Beijing is under pressure to take a strong stance against North Korea but so far has not accepted the findings of an independent investigation.
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Taling is one thing but acting is something else. Up to this point China has refrained from criticizing North korea despite overwhelming evidence that a North Korean torpedo sank a South Korean ship over a month ago.

John H. Armwood

Editorial: As Tensions Rise on Korean Peninsula, China Stands By

Editorial: As Tensions Rise on Korean Peninsula, China Stands By: "The only country with any chance of getting through to North Korea is China. Its decision not to act only makes the status quo more dangerous."

(Via NYT > Opinion.)

Op-Ed Contributor - South Korea’s Collective Shrug - NYTimes.com

Op-Ed Contributor - South Korea’s Collective Shrug - NYTimes.com

ONE of the students at my university was killed in the attack that sank a South Korean naval vessel on March 26. A visual communications major, Mun Yeong-uk was only a few months from concluding his military service when a North Korean torpedo split the warship, the Cheonan, in half. His classmates loyally collected money for his family’s funeral expenses, but I was struck by how few people on our campus evinced any real anger toward the regime of Kim Jong-il.

This lack of indignation is mainstream here. Most people now accept North Korea’s responsibility for the sinking that killed Mr. Mun and 45 other sailors. A small but sizable minority suspect an elaborate government conspiracy of some sort. What almost all seem to share is the desire that South Korea put this unfortunate business behind it as soon as possible.
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This article accurate expresses attitudes I saw during my more than two year stay in South Korea. These attitudes were a surprise to me and just about every other non Korea I met there. The common sympathy and race identification of Koreans seemed very bizarre to me. It seemed to be a throw back to an ancient since of tribalism, an attitude indirect opposition to the empirical reality of the present situation on the peninsula. It is all very puzzling. South Koreans generally have an unrealistic view of the world with little understanding of world history or the political machinations of other governments. The real shocker was the lack of any real intellectual curiosity concerning these issues.


John H. Armwood