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Tuesday, July 02, 2019

National (US) Poll - July 2, 2019 - Harris Gets Big Debate Bounce | Quinnipiac University Connecticut

"July 2, 2019 - Harris Gets Big Debate Bounce While Biden Sinks

After Democratic presidential contenders duked it out over two nights of debates, former Vice President Joseph Biden hits his lowest number yet in the Democratic primary race with 22 percent of the vote among Democrats and Democratic leaners, virtually tied with California Sen. Kamala Harris who has 20 percent of the vote. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren follows at 14 percent, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is at 13 percent, and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg gets 4 percent, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University National Poll released today. No other candidate tops 3 percent.

This compares to a June 11, 2019 Quinnipiac University Poll which had Biden at 30 percent, Sanders getting 19 percent, Warren with 15 percent, Buttigieg at 8 percent, and Harris with 7 percent.

In today's poll, Biden has a numerical lead among men with 22 percent, followed by Sanders at 19 percent and Harris with 14 percent. But among women, Harris has a slight edge with 24 percent to Biden's 22 percent. The race is similarly close for white Democratic voters, with Biden at 21 percent, and both Harris and Warren at 20 percent. Harris also essentially catches Biden among black Democratic voters, a historically strong voting bloc for Biden, with Biden at 31 percent and Harris at 27 percent.

"Round 1 of the Democratic debates puts Senator Kamala Harris and former Vice President Joe Biden on two different trajectories, as support for Harris surges but continues to slip for Biden. Biden's once commanding lead has evaporated. There are other red flags for him in areas where he still leads, including double digit drops among Democrats and Democratic leaners who view him as the best leader, or as the best candidate to defeat President Trump in 2020," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow.

Democrats and Democratic leaners were also asked which candidate they thought had the best chance of winning against President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election, regardless of who they support in the primary. Biden tops the field with 42 percent, which is a drop from the 56 percent that he received on April 30. Harris comes in a distant second with 14 percent in today's poll, up from 2 percent in April. Sanders receives 13 percent, and no other candidate reaches double digits.

When asked who would be the best leader, Biden again tops the field with 26 percent, an 18-point drop from the 44 percent he received the last time this question was asked. Harris finishes second with 16 percent, up from 6 percent in April. Sanders and Warren are tied with 15 percent, while no other candidate reaches double digits.

In a question about which candidate has the best policy ideas, Warren takes the lead with 31 percent, compared to 19 percent in April. Sanders is next with 18 percent, while Biden receives 11 percent, a drop from 23 percent in April. Harris is at 8 percent, and no other candidate tops 3 percent.

"When it comes to policy ideas, Senator Elizabeth Warren scores higher than any of the Democratic presidential contenders. However, it didn't give her a boost in her overall numbers in the primary race," Snow added.

The First Debate

Forty percent of Democrats and Democratic leaning voters say they watched most of the debates, while another 40 percent paid close attention to news stories about the debates. Of those who did one or the other, 47 percent say Harris did the best job in the recent debates, followed by Warren at 17 percent, Biden at 6 percent, and Sanders at 5 percent. When asked who did the worst job in the debates, 16 percent of these voters say self-help author Marianne Williamson, while Biden receives a nearly identical 15 percent.

From June 28 - July 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 554 Democrats and voters leaning Democratic nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues."

National (US) Poll - July 2, 2019 - Harris Gets Big Debate Bounce | Quinnipiac University Connecticut

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