Friday, June 21, 2019
"... “Regardless of where you come down on is this international airspace or Iranian airspace, this was not an escalatory move by the United States. It was an escalatory move by Iran,” Zegart says. “You can imagine in some circumstances, gathering intelligence can be deescalating, because everyone has a better picture of what’s going on on the ground. So the simple fact of sending a surveillance drone over a conflict area does not in itself lead to escalation necessarily.”
Zegart warns that the situation is “very dangerous” and that the Trump Administration should take the potential for escalating tensions seriously.
“The President’s use of Twitter is perhaps the biggest wildcard here,” says Zegart. “There are a lot of mixed messages coming out of the Administration whether you’re listening to the National Security Adviser or the President or the Secretary of State. So messaging discipline––which has never been a hallmark of this administration––is all the more important with this particular adversary. I think we can’t assume that an adversary like Iran is going to discount what the President says on Twitter is just Trump being Trump.”
Beyond the current situation, Gettinger, of the Center for the Study of the Drone, argues that the U.S. is likely to see more incidents like this. Drones are becoming increasingly popular in regions with high political and military tensions.
“Because of this proliferation of drones, and because of the perceived low risk of deploying them in these situations, there is a potential that we could see more of these incidents in the future,” Gettinger says."
Iran Shoots Down U.S. Drone: What to Know About the RQ-4 Global Hawk | Time