Why Did Americans Without College Degrees Vote For Trump? Even controlling for race and income, the concentration of college degrees was the strongest indicator of whether a county would back the Republican. - The Atlantic

"By now, you’ve heard about the great American divide that ushered Donald Trump into office. It’s probably been pitched as a matter of money and wealth— prosperous city dwellers against the rural poor, or the white working class versus everyone else.



But that’s the wrong place to look. Education mattered more than anything else, it appears, even when controlling for economic factors.



States submitting their final election returns have made it possible to dig deeper into local ballots, combining Census demographics and county-level turnout to make conclusions with statistical heft. The chart below tracks 15 demographic factors and the relative strength they held in this election, as modeled through linear regression (and controlling for total votes and Mitt Romney’s 2012 turnout, which strips away some predictable partisan patterns):

What Predicted Donald Trump's Success?

These are the county demographics that mattered most in the election, according to an analysis using county ballot counts and Census records. They're scaled to their relative importance, and split by statistical significance.

Some helped Trump, and others hurt him.

High significance

More college grads

Larger Asian population

Larger Hispanic population

Larger black population

Larger immigrant population

Median income dropped

Bigger manufacturing base

More homebodies

Lost manufacturing jobs

Hispanic population grew

Richer

Moderate significance

Unemployment rate, men

Low significance

Unemployment rate, women

Rate of drug overdose

Denser neighborhoods

 


Why Did Americans Without College Degrees Vote For Trump? - The Atlantic